Is it hot for you in the past year? Say "thank you" to the
Hunga-Tongа volcano. If you've been feeling unusually hot lately and the heat waves seem unimaginable, it's not a coincidence. The meteorological service has concluded that every month in the past year, except for May, has been hotter than usual, and the first half of June was completely abnormal and broke records. Those who remember know that monthly heat records were also broken last August. So, what could have caused this?
- Global warming? There might be a connection or partial connection, but what has been happening in the past year in the country and the world is not typical of the gradual warming associated with global climate change. This post does not aim to assert this, and it is up to specialists to investigate. At the time of writing, I have not come across mentions of a connection between global warming and what has been happening in the past year, and if anyone knows of such publications, please inform.
- When it's hard to understand but there's no desire to try to figure it out and learn, simpler paths that don't require learning or effort are taken, and the internet is fertile ground for such theories. In this case, there are tens of thousands of eccentrics in the country accusing the government of "spraying us" from airplanes, causing the heat.
- Another possible answer is a study published in the Journal of Climate, which claims that the giant eruption in mid-January 2022 of the Hunga-Tonga volcano, located in the Pacific Ocean east of Australia, is the cause. Volcanic eruptions with certain characteristics [ash emission into specific layers of the atmosphere] are usually associated with short-term global cooling and cold rainy years in Israel. However, due to the volcano's location in the ocean and underwater, the discussed eruption emitted not only ash but also a huge amount of water vapor, which is known as a greenhouse gas. Hence, it's not far to global warming this year. Since there are no scientific precedents for the impact of such an amount of water vapor [water vapor in the atmosphere has been measured by satellites since 1979, and since then, this is the only eruption with such characteristics], its further impact is unclear, and there is a suggestion that the heat caused by this phenomenon will accompany us until the end of the current decade.
Thanks to Nati Bergman:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/459783/tonga-volcano-why-was-it-so-big-and-are-there-others-we-need-to-watch-out-for (In Hebrew, details about Hunga-Tongа erruption) From a study published in the Journal of Climate:
The Hunga-Tongа volcano eruption in January 2022 had a significant impact on the average temperature on Earth in the following years, including 2023 and 2024.
The main effect of the Tonga eruption is related to the emission of a huge amount of water vapor into the stratosphere. Usually, volcanic eruptions that emit a lot of ash and sulfur lead to a temporary global cooling trend, as these particles reflect sunlight. However, the Tonga eruption was unique as it emitted predominantly water vapor, which is a powerful greenhouse gas. This water vapor traps thermal radiation coming from the Earth, thereby contributing to warming.
Impact on 2023.
In 2023, the Tonga eruption continued to impact global temperatures. The emission of water vapor contributed to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect, leading to an increase in average temperatures across the planet.
Impact on 2024.
For 2024, it is forecasted that the effect of the Tonga eruption will still be felt. Although over time, the water vapor gradually dissipates and returns to the hydrological cycle, its impact on the temperature regime can persist for several years. Thus, elevated levels of water vapor in the stratosphere may continue to contribute to heat retention and maintain higher-than-usual average global temperatures.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/104/1/BAMS-D-22-0164.1.xmlhttps://www.toalexsmail.com/2024/06/russian-english-hebrew.html#
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